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Live Market Pricing (TradingView)

Macro Regime Matrix FRED · HARDCODED · Aug 2026

What is this? These fundamentals drive markets over weeks and months. Real interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation) are the single most important macro variable for commodities. Negative real rates = hard assets thrive. Positive real rates = cash and bonds preferred. The yield curve (2Y vs 10Y) inverted before every US recession since 1970 — watch it closely. CPI tells you what the Fed will do next, and that decision ripples through every asset.

AWAITING DATA

INITIALIZING

10Y Real Rate

--%

2Y/10Y Spread

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Fed Funds Rate

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FOMC TARGET

CPI YoY

--%

HEADLINE INFLATION

Regime Commentary

Initializing regime analysis...

Real Yield Conditions

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Yield Curve Signal

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Apex Conviction Edges MULTI-FACTOR SCORING

What is a conviction edge? When multiple independent data sources — macro regime, CFTC institutional positioning, EIA supply fundamentals, and price momentum — all align in the same direction, that is an edge. Score 8/10 = 8 separate factors aligned. Score ≥7 = high conviction LONG or SHORT. Score 4–6 = neutral, conflicting signals. Score ≤3 = multiple headwinds active. Higher score = more evidence, not a guarantee. Always apply your own risk management.

AWAITING SCAN — LOADING CONVICTION DATA

Autonomous Learning Agent PERCEIVE → LEARN → ACT

INITIALIZING AGENT...

CFTC COT — Institutional Positioning AWAITING

What is the COT report? Every Friday the CFTC publishes the Commitment of Traders — a breakdown of how large institutional traders (hedge funds, banks, managed money) are positioned in futures markets. Net Long = funds expect prices to rise. Net Short = expect prices to fall. When positioning reaches an extreme (>80th percentile of the 52-week range), the trade is "crowded" — historically this precedes reversals. An Extreme Short setup (<20th percentile) is often a squeeze opportunity. Always pair with fundamentals.

LOADING CFTC DATA VIA FUTURESBENCH

EIA Energy Supply Data AWAITING

What is this? Every Thursday the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes petroleum storage data. A crude inventory draw (stocks fall week-on-week) means demand exceeded supply — bullish for oil prices. A build means excess supply — bearish. Natural gas storage versus the 5-year seasonal average tells you whether we are heading into winter with a surplus or deficit — directly driving Henry Hub prices. US production data shows whether shale growth offsets OPEC+ cuts.

LOADING EIA DATA

Global Oil Supply Tracker OPEC+ ESTIMATES

LOADING SUPPLY DATA

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